BustBoys
PLAYERS MOST LIKELY TO BUST IN FANTASY
Running Backs
1. Devon Achane:
This guy truly has all the talent in the world as a running back. Blazing speed, shiftiness, and vision were all on full display his rookie season. The issue here was that a lot of the games he had monstrous performances in were either against the worst defenses in the NFL or in games that were an effective scratch. Against Baltimore he put up 137 yards, final score 56-19 in an absolute thumping for his squad that had nothing going. Against the Commanders he put up 100 all purpose yards on 20 touches, final score Dolphins 45, Commanders 15. Against Denver he puts up 203 yards in a 50 point massacre, against Buffalo in a 28 point loss he busts a long run in complete garbage time to put up a total of 120 yards on eleven touches. The theme here is that he’s never put up a godlike performance against any real defense. This year his schedule is shaping up to be more difficult, the Dolphins drafted a new RB Jaylen Wright, he lost his best offensive lineman Robert Hunt to the Panthers, and his injury concerns loom large with an increased workload. Although I believe the talent is there in abundance I just don’t believe the smoke screens the media throws up for this Miami Dolphins squadron. I foresee a year of disappointment given the lofty expectations around his name and a committee in the backfield that has continually grown with Mike McDaniel at the helm.
2. Isiah Pacheco:
The intense love Isiah Pacheco has received especially in the realm of fantasy seems a bit over the top. He was the benefactor last year of Mahomes’ worst statistical season to date and although I love the way in which he churns his legs and runs with anger, I just don’t see him reaching the 1000 yard mark and being a real significant RB1. Comparisons to beast mode gave me a hearty chuckle when watching ball this last year. He is nowhere near the stratosphere that Beast Mode was in for the entirety of his career. You just have to expect a significant bounceback from Mahomes even with putrid offensive line play that plagued him in the 2023 season. I see the Chiefs leaning on a short passing game to help this offensive line out that doesn’t have any players outside of Creed Humphrey in the middle. Just be real here. I love Pacheco’s story and work ethic, but ESPN views the guy in way too high of a regard for his talent level. He’s an efficient, solid back. Not a fantasy juggernaut, not a superstar. He’s the 16th guy off draft boards in PPR fantasy on ESPN, which sickens me.
3. Rachaad White:
There are two sides to the coin for Rachaad White. As a pass catcher he is as reliable as a running back can be, but as a runner he just can’t get anything going whatsoever. It’s been a common trend throughout his career, but Canales magnified his pass catching ability a ton last year to help Baker revitalize his career and help move the chains on drives. I’m pretty much just scared of Bucky Irving coming in and cutting into White’s workload significantly. Irving is faster, has the same pass catching tools, and has the burst and agility to significantly contribute to the Buccaneers run game that has been a complete non factor for years at this point. He is going way too high in fantasy and what we saw last year for him was his absolute ceiling. No competition and a great all purpose season for him putting up 1500 yards was definitely nothing to scoff at. I just can’t foresee any NFL team leaning on a back fully in the run game that averages 3.6 yards per carry. It’s not all his fault behind an offensive line that has struggled at points, but his value as a receiver is what has afforded him an opportunity to remain RB1 for Tampa for a bit now. I see a committee in Tampa and Irving just might shine when the ball is in his hands with the ability he displayed at Oregon.
4. Aaron Jones:
Now this one has to be a given for any diehard football fans. Jones to the Vikings won’t do many favors. Ty Chandler is going to be fighting for his NFL life in an offense that has more questions than answers to start the 2024 season, which translates to Jones not doing too much. Every NFC North front in the run game is now formidable and scary to match up against, giving another red flag for Aaron Jones fans to stomach. Jones has elite talent no doubt, but injuries are continuing to stack for the 29 year old, which is why the Packers were justified in going another route at their RB position. Watching Jones last year made me create a fictional stat in my head for Jones moving forward. Big play to injury ratio. Big plays of 40+ yards will most likely result in a Jones injury on one of every five big plays. His hamstring pulls and constant ailments in that department make him likely to have a bad season for Minnesota alongside a huge question mark for his quarterback play. I do like his ability to catch passes for Darnold and that could be a bright spot for Jones if he’s on the field. His year is shaping up to be abysmal or great, nothing in between. I’m personally leading towards the abysmal side, but Aaron Jones may want revenge after getting kicked to the curb.
5. Joe Mixon:
Another year under his belt and in Houston’s pass first offense, Joe Mixon enters the arena. Although his ability could translate to fantasy success with catches and TD runs, I don’t see it for him. Getting around the 30 year old range for a running back usually leads to a decline in production, which I can easily see with his game. He just doesn’t run all that fast or give you anything that justifies his value, contract and fantasy wise. For some reason with no one else on the depth chart I could see Dameon Pierce providing value on the ground that he gave in his first year. It was an incredibly odd falloff for Pierce last season and now in his age 24 season comes a point where he needs to prove whether or not he still has it. The decline from nearing 1000 yards rushing in his rookie season to 400 yards in his second year made absolutely no sense. Devin Singletary was expected to back him up this past year, but when his efficiency went in the toilet so did his opportunity on the ground for the Texans. I still believe in Pierce, not as a star, but as a reliable running back in a Texans backfield that has ample opportunity for touchdown scoring. No one should forget the fact that Pierce was an absolute nightmare to tackle in year one. I think Mixon might have trouble this year. At pick 24 in fantasy on ESPN he is horrendous value at that ADP given the many circumstances that could result in him being a low to middle end RB2. His career has been defined by the volume he gets, so in Houston I don’t see them providing that volume he has feasted on for fantasy.
Wide Receivers:
1. Nico Collins (Really Stefon Diggs. Just don’t want him to be garbage.):
This take looks like a personal attack on Nico Collins, but it’s not. I just think he has a solid chance of being WR2/WR3 in Houston’s offense. It all depends on how Stefon Diggs plays in a massive prove it year after the Texans restructured his contract from multiple years to one. This was a good move by their front office to escape the pouting of Diggs long term if he doesn’t excel in Houston. Collins talent wise has crushed every expectation in front of him to date, but I can’t ignore what I saw in Tank Dell last season. I think Dell is their bonafide number one wideout when healthy. Collins got a boost to his stats last year after Dell’s broken leg and I think it made people forget how special Dell was, which will make for a funny year when Tank Dell outproduces Diggs and Nico. Honestly I didn’t put Diggs as the header just because Nico is projected to be the number one wideout in Houston. If Diggs can prove he isn’t in fact washed then Nico’s value could plummet. This take comes more out of caution than anything else. I just see two guys in direct competition with Nico Collins (same goes with Diggs) and I can’t justify using my 28th pick. Diggs’ career and my fandom of Stefon Diggs is the only thing putting Collins as the header because man did Diggs look washed. Prove it or lose it Stefon! Diggs just has way bigger of a sample size to go off of than Nico’s one incredibly impressive season. Dell is an unguardable matchup nightmare that has a knack for finding holes in zone coverages and dusting corners one on one in space. Man will I enjoy cracking a cold one while watching Dell get the recognition he deserves.
2. Deebo Samuel:
This guy seems to be overvalued every single year in the fantasy world given what his skillset is. He excels at making yards after catch and fulfills a certain role in the Niners offense that caps his potential. With Aiyuk as a prime down the field target, McCafferey commanding the ball a ton, and Kittle as a mismatch to throw it to, I see Deebo as a great player in real life, but not fantasy. I could see him or Aiyuk getting traded at some point in the season given that the Niners can’t afford the duo long term. I think Aiyuk outproduces Deebo this year and comes with a much better track record in terms of injury history. Deebo also has the risk of being deployed as a weapon in the run game, which is usage you usually don’t want to see with an elite wideout. He is an X-factor kind of player so if you believe he can stay on the field and that Purdy is the truth and will improve then, by all means, draft him. I don’t believe Purdy is that great and I can easily see a less productive 49ers roster when someone goes down. This is an expectation for me because their roster has many players who are glass when it comes to sustaining big injuries and with the Niners history it happens most years.
3. Xavier Worthy:
This guy is honestly a joke. He’s most likely a bust before playing a down in the NFL given his poor size and alright route running. The clip of him getting blown up in training camp made me think of that fake anonymous GM report the NFL put out that alleged a GM was upset after the Chiefs took “their guy”. Nobody in their right mind should think Xavier Worthy had a better profile than Keon Coleman in this year’s draft, which calls into question the legitimacy of that report. Anybody who watched the Chiefs last year knows the deep ball was non-existent for Mahomes. This was due to abysmal offensive tackle play that would collapse the pocket in a few seconds every play. Worthy’s 40 time is meaningless when you see the list of the other fastest players, none of which made any impact in the NFL. Nothing wows me about Worthy outside of just speed and I think physicality off the line will kill him when facing any formidable secondary. His impact would only be behind the line of scrimmage aside from deep balls, which makes me think his ceiling is akin to De'anthony Thomas, not anyone special. His player comp I foresee is actually eerily similar to his teammate Kadarius Toney. Lots of potential, but an uphill battle for the young speedster.
4. Chris Olave:
This one has nothing to do with the talent of the player, but just the situation at hand. When reporters asked him if the Saints had a shot to shock anyone this season he pretty much laughed in their face and dismissed the notion. The lone bright spot that can save Chris Olave is if Rattler gets the nod at QB this season. On the record I made the take that Rattler was better value than JJ McCathy in this year’s draft and I think if he’s given the keys with the amount of speed the Saints have in their skill groups, then he might flourish. I fear for Olave’s safety as well. If Derek Carr gets the nod he’ll be hit with many suicide balls considering teams lining up against the Saints will surely put safety help over the top on his side of the field. He’s going in the top 20 range this year and I just don’t necessarily understand why. He won’t sniff the top 10-15 WR range and if he does then it will be from nuclear performances and then games with low production, which could kill you come fantasy playoff time. It’s just way too hard for Olave to produce significant numbers when Derek Carr is under center. He has significantly regressed at QB and the Saints have little to no firepower outside of Rashid Shaheed on the outside to free up Olave on routes. I really hope Olave can escape New Orleans in the near future unless Rattler shows that #1 QB prospect talent he displayed in high school ball.
5. There’s no real fifth. I'm not going to force it, but Puka Nacua?:
To label Puka as a bust is totally not what I want to do here. I’m just nervous his draft position at pick ten might be a little bit high when there’s a decent possibility that Cooper Kupp might be the top wideout for the Rams this season. I mean when LA won the Super Bowl you could make a legitimate argument for who the best player on the field was for them with Kupp and Donald. I just think he has the most talent of anyone in the 40th pick range by a landslide and it would be silly to assume a healthy Cooper Kupp isn’t up there with the league’s best. You could knock him for being injured last year, but it’s just foolish to assume he falls off a cliff as much as people project him to. The Rams run their offense through him and his ability to break a press, create separation, and run routes that are unguardable. The guy is one of the league’s best players in the slot. He will be put to use. Injury concerns are valid, but if Kupp stays on the field then picking up Puka early could sting you. There also are plenty of other options in the 10th to 17th pick range with better situations in terms of target volume and roster composition that allow for opportunity that Puka might not have.
Tight Ends:
1. Evan Engram:
I mean be real here. How many times did you see Evan Engram make big plays last season? Not too often. The issue with Engram is he doesn’t contribute much to his team’s success with a majority of his production coming in the flats for minimal gains. He juices everything he can out of PPR formats and puts up stat lines that are insanity when looking at his game log. How many times do you see a guy have a career year where he averages the lowest amount of yards per catch and depth of average target he has seen in the NFL? His ceiling was last year with an offensive line that killed TLaw and benefitted Engram in the form of having 41 more catches than any other season he’s had in his seven year career. The last two years have been his best statistically, going from 73 receptions in 2022 to 114 receptions in 2023. With him getting force fed his team has been underwhelming to say the least and now two new targets Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis have entered the equation. The only way Engram can do what he did last year is if the Jaguars aren’t in competition for their division and I think a core of Davis, Thomas Jr, and Kirk will hurt his stock significantly in 2024. Watching the Jaguars offense after starting red hot last year was very painful and scary to see. Lawrence took punishment repeatedly from opposing defenses and looked as though he almost had his ankle destroyed by his own tackle stepping on it. This play was on a three man rush. Are you kidding me man? Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk are going to steal every bit of Engram’s production and he’ll be left with some decent scraps. Touchdown potential?
2. Mark Andrews:
I really don’t like to kick a guy when he’s down, but the injury Andrews sustained on Logan Wilson’s hip drop tackle might hurt him this year. You simply can’t expect a 2021, 1,350 yard Mark Andrews this season even with Lamar's ascension passing the ball. The only game we’ve seen him play in since the bad injury against the Bengals he was nowhere near 100% and was a non factor in the passing game for Lamar against the Chiefs. I think a candidate, Isiah Likely, might be in store to be the second option for Lamar given that he’s massive, has great hands, and can fly. His ability to run after the catch hasn’t been used too much in the Ravens offense and the confidence John Harbaugh has in Jackson is colossal. He wants to put Lamar in the conversation of the greatest of all time and it makes me think he has something up his sleeve. Andrews’ ceiling doesn’t justify where he goes in fantasy drafts, but in the game of football I just don’t have confidence in him being elite after no sample size of a post injury Andrews. There’s also potential for Zay Flowers to continue his growth in the WR1 role and Devontez Walker might be another weapon added in the mix for the Ravens that would hurt Andrews. Bateman might be able to produce something as well for the first time in his career.
3. Travis Kelce:
A historically set and forget fantasy player has now seen a season in which he fell off both statistically and just watching his play. He did solid all playoffs, but I just don’t know how much gas he has left in the tank. At around pick 20-25 you should know the guy you are taking is an absolute stud and I don’t think he will be. After the Chiefs threw the kitchen sink at the wideout position it scares me to draft Kelce more than ever. Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and an improving Rashee Rice (if he’s not suspended) all will eat into Kelce’s touches, but also have the potential to open up the underneath passing game when facing zone coverages, which is where Travis Kelce feasts. I do have an implicit bias to dislike the Chiefs after the NFL praised everything they’ve ever done, but with Kelce it’s just his age that will most likely lead to a decline before retirement. He will retire as one of the best to ever play at the tight end position and this year might be his worst. If you pick a tight end this early in fantasy or believe Kelce will dominate, then I don’t know what to say to you. So is it going to be forever that Kelce dominates the gridiron or will it go down in flames? I just don’t see him with upside to be a TE1 overall now that Pitts has a real QB and Laporta will continue to grow as a top tight end option.
Quarterbacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes:
This one should just be a given after Mahomes finished as QB8 overall last year, which honestly was inflated by a few games. I drafted him early last year and it stung to see his offensive line routinely fold time and time again. They haven’t improved in that area whatsoever and even with their wideout additions I just don’t see Mahomes finishing as a top 3 QB, which would be a requirement considering you are drafting him at pick 34 above Lamar Jackson on Sleeper. Rushing upside is non-existent with Mahomes and I’d probably look to take four or five QBs above Mahomes that have that upside. Mahomes is by far the best QB in the NFL from a competitive mindset and talent standpoint, but I don’t know if Mahomes' heroball is something I want to bet my chips on in the 2024 NFL season. Another thing to consider is how the Chiefs found late season success in the run game. Mahomes always has potential to put up a nuclear season, so on this list he might be the safest guy I project to bust in fantasy. He still has a great floor, but looking at the draft capital one needs to spend on him it’s not worth it.
2. Brock Purdy:
The issue with Brock Purdy is that he is a system guy in a system that is bound to get worse if Aiyuk departs. He doesn’t wow you in any way and I’m taking Herbert over Purdy any day of the week and twice on Sunday over Purdy. McCaffrey is the 49ers heartbeat and when he’s in he will most definitely score most of the 49ers touchdowns and if he is out then bye bye Niners. That’s the biggest fear for every Niners fan is if McCaffrey can’t stay healthy. Purdy also has little to no rushing upside, which is something Jayden Daniels has fifteen picks after him. I don’t see why Purdy is sitting at pick 99 right now and why some other juggernauts both in real life and in fantasy are being taken after him. These QB options include: Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and maybe even Matthew Stafford. I just don’t believe Purdy is as good as some people advertise and most good quarterbacks would have a ring in San Fran with how loaded their roster is top to bottom. I’m not blaming Purdy for that to be clear though because Greenlaw tore his ACL on a celebration that was downright silly and Purdy hurt his elbow right off the bat when looking to take down the Eagles the season prior. I just see such little upside for Purdy versus the guys I mentioned and the guys that go before him. His floor could be a nightmare too if anyone who’s a focal point in the Niners offense goes down. Just avoid him.
3. Caleb Williams:
DO NOT let the smoke screens the media creates around this player distract you from the fact that Williams will surely bust this year in his rookie season. It doesn’t mean he’ll be bad his whole career, but this year it’s a given. The Bears will have to play loaded fronts all season in their division and their offensive line is the worst in the entire NFC North. Williams going against Dallas Turner and Jonathan Greenard will not be pretty. Williams against the Packers entire defense with upgrades everywhere will not be pretty. And lastly going against my Lions and their drastically improved secondary will be anything but pretty for the rook. People need to understand that rookies being great at QB in the NFL is an anomaly no matter how exceptional they play in college. Having all the receivers around Williams surely will help him get a nice feel for the game at the NFL level, but growing pains are highly likely. D’Andre Swift at lead back also is a cause for concern because if he goes down then the Bears will be completely one dimensional. He does have decent rushing upside, but can someone really convince me Caleb at pick102 is a better draft choice than Justin Herbert around pick 130? No.
