Best Bets (NFL Futures)
Best Bets (Via DraftKings)
Note: You can parlay unlimited stat lines only on DraftKings. For milestone bets (1000+ yards etc.) you can parlay up to six selections.
Zamir White Over 4.5 Rushing TDs (-125):
With no competition in Las Vegas outside of Alexander Mattison and in an Offense that got a lot better over the offseason it seems as if this line was set way too low. I don’t see a world where the Raiders aren’t above .500 considering they signed Christian Wilkins to go alongside Maxx Crosby on defense and brought in Jackson Powers-Johnson and Brock Bowers to bolster their offense significantly. A core of Davante Addams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, and Tre Tucker should be able to push the ball down the field with ease and provide Zamir White with ample red zone opportunities. Zamir White is guaranteed to be the goalline back on a team that is projected to do much worse than I think they will do. This team is a wildcard squad with a shot of nabbing the Kansas City Chiefs of the AFC West crown if Gardner Minshew gives it all he’s got at the quarterback position and takes care of the pigskin. If White doesn’t have over 4.5 rushing TDs I’d be utterly shocked. Last year this offense was led by a guy in Aidan O’Connell that was a walk-on eighth string QB to begin his Purdue Boilermaker tenure. The Raiders found a rhythm and a recipe for success once head coach Josh McDaniels got kicked to the curb and Antonio Pierce set the tone for what kind of football team the Raiders would be. Smash mouth football spearheaded by Zamir White equates to demolishing this line.
Marvin Harrison Jr Over 1,000.5 Receiving Yards (-110):
With Competition that includes just Michael Wilson and Trey McBride after the departure of Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore this line is as free as a line could get. MHJ paired with former number one overall pick Kyler Murray is a pairing that will be similar to the one Kyler had with Deandre Hopkins in his first season as an Arizona Cardinal. That season saw Kyler in talks for MVP before an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder caused his play to decline a bit. That season Deandre Hopkins put up an astounding 1,400 receiving yards as Kyler routinely launched jump balls to his star wideout. Now looking at MHJ, he is by far the most complete wide receiver Kyler has ever had in an offense and with no Kliff Kingsbury at head coach to dull the offense Arizona should fire on all cylinders. Their defense is an atrocity with Budda Baker and nobody else of note, so much so that Vegas projects them to give up the most points of any defense in the 2024 NFL season. That equates to shootouts where Kyler will need to put the squad on his back with a wideout that has surpassed both Jamarr Chase and Justin Jefferson as a prospect. Surpassing two of the league’s top three wideouts is a nearly impossible task, but watching Maserati Marv play ball it is evident that he may be the best wideout to come out of the draft since Calvin Johnson. He’s unguardable with his speed, smooth route running, body control when landing, elite hands, football IQ (From Marvin Harrison Sr.'s tutelage), and lastly his sense to flash hands at the last possible moment to eliminate corners from breaking up the deep ball. That last ability I mentioned is something that a top wideout in the NFL needs to separate themselves from the pack. He’ll get open and make phenomenal grabs all season, which makes a line of just 1,000 yards quite puzzling. A healthy Kyler nears 4,000 passing yards with ease and the competition that I mentioned to begin this section put up a combined less than 1,400 yards last season. I’m even confident in Marvin Harrison Jr. eclipsing 1,250 yards barring injury. Man this line really is free.
Keon Coleman Over 700.5 Receiving Yards (-105):
A wide receiver with a huge frame in a top five offense that traded its former superstar wideout to Houston seems like a nice recipe for success. As someone who isn’t a firm believer in James Cook as a workhorse running back, I think to be in the top tier status of offenses like Buffalo has been in they’ll need to lean heavily on Josh Allen’s arm. This idea along with a defense that is in the gutter currently leads me to think they will be in loads of high scoring games especially after taking another blow losing star linebacker Matt Milano to a significant bicep injury. I don’t believe in any pass catcher in Buffalo as much as Keon Coleman, which makes 700.5 yards seem very low. Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir both possess less talent than Keon Coleman and the Bills offense last year had spurts where their passing game ceased to exist. This passing game will be consistent and high octane again after Coleman finds his footing in the NFL. I love Kincaid and Shakir as accessory pieces in the offense especially in the intermediate passing game to move the chains and power long drives, but Coleman’s ability to box out defenders and make ridiculous snags along with his sneaky speed is a better fit for Josh Allen’s archetype. Statistically, Coleman should feast off the deep ball and at least be able to match Gabe Davis’ subpar season last year in Buffalo. This would result in Keon hitting this miniscule line since Davis eclipsed the seven hundred yard mark by forty-six yards last season. Coleman is one of my favorite wide receiver picks in this year’s draft considering how well he will fit into a gunslinger offense, something he never had in college. Easy money.
Josh Allen Over 3,750.5 Passing Yards (-120):
This one honestly makes zero sense to me. You’re telling me the second best quarterback in the NFL can’t put up 4,000 passing yards. Oh wait. His line is at 3,750.5 passing yards? That makes zero sense. We witnessed Stefon Diggs completely fall off of a cliff for Josh Allen last year and Gabe Davis outside of a couple games was terrible all season and Allen still put up 4,300 passing yards. It’s not like his receiving core last year was loads better than this season and for four straight seasons we’ve witnessed Allen eclipse the 4,250 yard mark every season with relative ease. He has had the most tumultuous path for s superstar QB from an organization standpoint. Crumbling against the Chiefs in the playoffs everywhere except for Josh, losing Daboll, and having no defensive answers at points in key games has killed Allen. Last year it was Diggs dropping a wide open touchdown in the AFC divisional round that might have been the worst drop I have ever seen from a superstar wideout. Weining seconds, cornerback behind Diggs and he attempts a basket catch when he could just reach up and grab the ball with such an open path that he could walk 30 yards to the endzone. My bad the thought of anyone ever putting any blame on Allen makes me disgusted. Fake turnover argument, can’t get it done in the playoffs these takes are pathetic and just downright lazy journalism/media coverage. I don’t quite understand the hype around James Cook becoming this monster workhorse guy as I stated in the Keon Coleman part of the article. He has bad size, fumbling problems, and just doesn’t really jump off the tape. He has Devon Achane syndrome too where all of his big games came against bad competition. His monster performances last year came against the Raiders, Commanders, Broncos, and lastly a snow game against Dallas where the Cowboys unraveled in a way we typically see from the squad in the playoffs. Vegas being too high on Cook and too wary about the Bills receiving corps makes for an incredibly valuable leg to a parlay or just straight prop with Josh Allen. Curtis Samuel is no slouch and I’m sure he’s happy to escape Washington.
Calvin Ridley Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-105):
This line might be the riskiest yet in this article. I think it’s free, but one may have concerns with the horrendous offensive line the Titans trotted out last year to the point where they aren’t ready to throw away the mortgage payment or cheat the family’s youngest child out of a college education to put their money on Ridley. Let me convince you Ridley can do it. Last year wasn’t Ridley’s best by any stretch of the imagination, but he did surpass 1,000 yards and guess what his main problem was. A putrid offensive line (and maybe a couple drops). Now in Tennessee he got a contract that screams we believe you still got it buddy and when acquiring offensive tackle JC Latham with their first round pick, the thought of Ridley coming into his own is very feasible. Will Levis got crushed a good bit last year and he is not scared to launch a piss missile in the face of pressure to one of the league’s most dangerous deep threats, Ridley. Don’t forget no Deandre Hopkins to start next year for the first four to six weeks. Who will eat into his numbers in this offense to start the year? Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo, Tyler Boyd, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the only candidates. None of which excel at making huge catches from the deep ball, which makes me really into the thought of taking Ridley both in fantasy and just as a betting prop because he’s going to command a huge share of Tennessee’s targets. That is guaranteed through six weeks, but I think the trend might continue as the year progresses. Ridley has a lot left in the tank and Levis is certainly going to lean on him for those explosive plays we saw in flashes during his rookie year.
David Montgomery Over 775.5 Rushing Yards (-115):
Montgomery is the focal point of this Lions offense. He is the ultimate ground and pound running back in an offense that has the most variance of any in the NFL. They can attack you with so many different pieces controlling games on the ground and in the air. With Jameson Williams looking to be the most improved player on the Lions I see the team leaning heavily on their dual threat RB room that was unstoppable last season to establish a tempo and open up play action long bombs to Jamo. Thinking Montgomery won’t average 45.6 yards a game behind the league’s best offensive line in one of the most prolific offenses the league has is just ludacris. Before last season with Montgomery teams questioned how good the back truly was and the result of last season showed everyone that he is a stud and Detroit loves him. He replaced Jamaal Williams with his locker room leadership and let his play speak for itself. People were very upset when the news broke that we got Montgomery over Williams and I knew it made zero sense. Montgomery’s ability to move downhill and fight for yards as well as switching gears in the open field make him a threat every game for a 100 yard outing. If he has two or three this year then this line gets obliterated, which makes his prop a bargain. He had 1,000 yards last season and the Lions are adamant on keeping Jahmyr Gibbs healthy, which opens up a huge opportunity for Montgomery to match his last year statistically. Seems pretty free to me.
Breece Hall Over 1500+ Rushing Yards (+1000):
Looking at advanced metrics of last season people love to highlight what Breece did as a receiving back, but where he really excels is on the ground and with four new offensive lineman and a washed Aaron Rodgers, he might go nuclear on the ground this year. I love the thought of the Jets run game and their defense carrying them to a divisional title and I see so much potential in Breece to be unstoppable. Last year coming off a major injury and beginning his campaign with a stint of having his reps capped to start the season, he still put up a season in which he rushed for almost 1,000 yards (four yards short). This was behind an absolute dumpster fire of an offensive line and with the worst quarterback play the league has seen in a while. Watching him play as an avid Jets fan I can tell you from experience he probably had ten to fifteen explosive runs that were called back due to holding penalties. Most of the time these penalties wouldn’t even be near the gap he ran through in the line, which tells you how garbage his roster was around him in 2023. CJ Uzomah was a frequent liability as a blocker for Breece and the team as a whole was among the most penalized teams in the entire NFL, which made Breece dip just below the 1,000 yard benchmark RBs shoot for. What made Hall’s numbers crazier last season is the fact that he was the only real, effective weapon the offense could utilize considering Garrett Wilson couldn’t make his QBs throw the football better. Defenses schemed against Hall every week trying everything they could to neutralize his explosiveness and yet no answer has been found. This line is so plausible if you aren’t a believer in an old Aaron Rodgers coming off a massive injury to his Achilles and historically when looking at offenses with a superstar RB and an average to slightly above average passing game breaking the 1,500 yard mark isn’t +1000 odds impossible. Now that their QB can spin the pigskin and put throws on the numbers to his wideouts, Breece's pass catching yardage will be mostly exchanged for rushing yards considering the Jets are going to have a gameplan that is slightly better than dump downs to Hall every game. This may be the freest longshot leg in my history of observing lines in the NFL (I’m only 22)
or problems can come up during the long NFL season that kills the miracle parlay leg you’ve dreamt of. If everything goes how I project for the New York Jets we will witness a competition between CMC and Breece for the league’s best RB.
Justin Herbert Over 4500+ Passing Yards (+1800):
Now this one is where people look and just scratch their head in disbelief that I even thought to include this line. Hear me out though. The Chargers have a run game that’s just terrible on paper there’s no other word for it. Kimani Vidal, J.K Dobbins (huge injury concerns), and Gus Edwards is not a trifecta you view as a problem when you're an opposing defense going against the Los Angeles Chargers. You could say the same thing about the Chargers receiving core if you viewed the bunch as a group that has no skill, but I think you are wrong. QJ, Derius Davis, Ladd McConkey, DJ Chark, Brenden Rice, and Joshua Palmer are guys who are just adequate enough for Justin Herbert. People don’t talk enough about the idea that the Chargers have two unbelievably talented tackles on their team. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater protecting on the edge should virtually guarantee Herbert a clean pocket to conduct this offense. The core of rag tag backyard football receivers the Chargers have assembled is full of players eager to gain an opportunity this year. Looking at everyone on this receiving core any player is guaranteed the best receiving season of their career, which is a resounding positive. Replacing Brandon Staley with Jim Harbaugh at head coach too is massive considering Staley was a defensive minded head coach that couldn’t even coach up a top 20 defense last year. Harbaugh is a coach known for playing to his team’s strengths, which usually include a run centric offense. I think that’s the reason why DraftKings opened up with a 3,600.5 yard line for Justin Herbert’s passing yards as a prop with good odds. Within a day and a half it was gone and I think the reasoning lies in the fact that the Chargers are going to be akin to the Dallas Cowboys air raid offensive scheme we saw last year when Tony Pollard couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Although the Chargers might not have many wins with an alright defense, (could see improvement with Harbaugh’s track record), Herbert will be fighting every game attempting anywhere from 38-45 passes. I think the odds on this with Herbert’s talent are far too good at virtually any number you can bet on, but this line holds the most value. And I DO NOT CARE about Herbert’s Plantar Fascia injury.
Herbert’s career statistics:
2020: Yards; 4,336 ROOKIE SEASON
2021: Yards; 5,014
2022: Yards; 4,379
2023: Yards; 3,134 (Missed a lot of the season and the team was rough to say the least)
Nico Collins Under 1,050.5 Receiving Yards (-135):
Yes. I am willingly ignoring every report that has come out in training camp around this Texans receiving core. I am a firm believer in Nathaniel “Tank” Dell as the Texans go to guy in the offense. Say what you want about who’s listed at what spot in the depth chart, but I would put the house on Tank Dell coming out of the season with the most receiving yards of this core. Stefon Diggs needs to bounce back as well after an abysmal period that started in the second half of last season. If Dell and Diggs come into the year and immediately get off to a hot start then Nico will be the lone man out when it comes to breaking 1,000 yards receiving. He looked awfully promising last year, but the situation he was in has changed drastically to the point where I’m just not confident in him replicating the numbers he put up last year. Tank Dell breaking his leg was massive for Nico’s statistical jump and if Dell plus Diggs are healthy and productive at any capacity then I foresee a decline in Nico’s game. Tank Dell matched up against a team’s third cornerback as well is just a nightmare to match up with because of the versatility he possesses in his game. He finds open space in zone coverage with ease and also he’ll kill any corner in press coverage with his releases, which will translate to Stroud looking his way. Stroud wanted Dell. Dell is his favorite wideout and with Diggs now in Houston I am nowhere near as high on Nico as some of the current fantasy football gurus are.
Darnell Mooney 750+ Receiving Yards (+300) or Mooney 1000+ Receiving Yards (+1000):
This one just looks gross on paper, but it’s anything but gross when doing a deep dive into this offense coming into 2024. With Rondale Moore out for the year the core the Falcons are trotting out includes Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and lastly Ray-Ray McCloud. With McCloud as a scratch in terms of production and London and Pitts as his only competition, Mooney will get ample opportunity in this Falcons offense led by Captain Kirk. The odds inflation you get when taking Mooney is very intriguing considering his ability to run crisp routes and get open when his name is called upon. Over the course of the last two seasons Kirk Cousins has completed 424 passes and then 216 last year missing nine of seventeen games. As an estimate he would’ve most likely reached 440 or so completions last year in one of his best seasons in the NFL. Now looking back at the receivers I mentioned Pitts has a career high of 68 receptions and Drake London’s is 72 receptions. The thing is Cousins is the best situation these young talents have ever been presented with in Atlanta by far. If both these guys put up 100 receptions this year and have beastly numbers then there are still 200-240 completions left on the table for Mooney, Bijan, and McCloud. If Mooney matches his best year with 81 completions where he had 1,000 yards in 2021 then this bet could be an easy cash cow. The change up from Fields to Cousins is a massive component in why it’s very plausible Mooney could be poised for his best season yet in the NFL. Not to mention Pitts and London are going to draw the majority of coverage against the defenses the Falcons play, which gives Kirk a shot to replicate what he did in Minnesota back in the days of Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Mooney holds such value at his current evaluation from Vegas that he had to receive a mention. You could comfortably label Mooney as a lock at 750 receiving yards and a reasonable gamble at 1000 yards.
Tank Dell 750+ Receiving Yards (-150):
Immaculate is the first word that comes to mind when taking this prop and placing it in one of your parlays. Tank Dell in just his rookie season put up 709 receiving yards in 11 games played, but watching the games he broke his leg early against Denver and exited the Atlanta contest with a concussion at the end of the first half, which means he truly played about nine games of football. If he competes for a whole season and eclipses 60 catches he is a guarantee to put up 750 yards without a doubt. I think he’s potentially safe for 1,000 yards this season given the big play ability he brings to this Texans offense, which Diggs no longer possesses. Putting up fifteen yards per catch in your rookie season is something that is completely unheard of and there were a decent bit of games where Stroud realized he was unguardable looking his way frequently. Talent is what makes this line a lock. Even when losing opportunity in this Offense given the Texans offseason I just don’t see a Texans blueprint in which Dell is not a key focal point. I will notify you that I am a Tank Dell fan so I may sound a little biased towards his role in Houston’s offense. If CJ Stroud improves and picks up from where he left off last season then two of these Texans receivers are bound to go nuclear, which makes Dell a sneaky 1,000 yard guy. It just isn’t appealing to put my faith in Nico Collins and Diggs to outproduce Dell over the course of a seventeen game season.
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 4.5 Receiving TDs (-125):
Thinking of the roster in Jacksonville and how things have changed this upcoming season one thing enters the forefront of conversation when looking at betting lines. Brian Thomas Jr. Elite speed, a huge frame, exceptionally reliable hands, and jumping ability makes him look like a candidate poised for a phenomenal rookie season. Getting Mitch Morse to sure up the offensive line's interior at center was huge for the Jags and when looking at the vacated touchdown receptions from Ridley last year (8), Thomas seems most likely to be the benefactor of red zone targets and deep jump ball touchdowns. If Lawrence is not on the ground every play then he will be looking Thomas’ way frequently aside from Christian Kirk who has been a stud in Duvall. The thing with Kirk though is that finding the endzone is not a specialty of his. Gabe Davis is just too goofy for me to talk about as a threat to Brian Thomas Jr. for touchdowns because he just follows his career blueprint every year. Performances that have you stunned just to watch him drop a goose egg across the board the following week. Looking at Thomas’ college statistics it would be incredibly puzzling to imagine him not hitting this low of a line. As a sophomore at LSU with just 31 receptions he hauled in five touchdowns and this last year as a junior with an expanded role he had 68 receptions with seventeen touchdowns on the season. One fourth of his receptions were touchdowns. That stat might be one of the most absurd I have seen from a rookie wide receiver entering the NFL. I don’t see a world in which Brian Thomas is a bust at the NFL level, but even if he is, the frame he has alone could still get him past the four touchdown mark seemingly with ease. Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis do not deter me from this pick whatsoever because Brian Thomas could easily slot in as the number one outside receiver on this offense, especially when it comes to the deep ball or when they need a huge play in the red zone.
There are far more picks I have, but I’m thinking of making a betting service so that’s all…..
