The 3 Initial, Intriguing Moves of the 2025 Offseason
The three moves that kicked off the offseason and are deserving of attention. What is the impact of each move?
Deebo Samuel to the Commanders:
After a season that led to Samuel being the target of social media banter with crucial drops on routine catches, poor production, and strife with the entire 49ers organization, Deebo is now a Washington Commander. Entering Washington Deebo is a player that couldn’t be in a better place than he is in right now. Fighting for a lucrative contract he desires with a QB in Jayden Daniels who performed like a league veteran and potential future league MVP in just his first season. This is exactly what Deebo needs. Mclaurin is the perfect accompaniment for Samuel because Terry is the outside receiver that stretches the field for Samuel that he didn’t have in San Francisco with Aiyuk missing the entirety of the 2024 NFL season. Now there will be plenty of space for Deebo to operate and Washington offensive coordinator, Cliff Kingsbury, is foaming at the mouth to get this upcoming 2025 season started. The main question around Deebo is whether or not he can replicate his mythical 2021 campaign with 1,770 all purpose yards and 14 TDs. This season saw him ascend up the ranks of wide receivers and earned him a lucrative 3 year, $71.5 million contract extension. The debate with him getting paid was particularly interesting back in 2021 because the 49ers decided to deploy him as a running back far more than they should've, giving him 59 carries that season. Maybe in an attempt to diminish his contract value by shifting his positional label towards a hybrid running back/wide receiver. He was paid like a wide receiver and things didn’t go so well. As long as Washington builds plays around his athleticism and doesn’t give him around 40+ carries this season like the Niners have the past four years, the Commanders could be electric with him on the field.
Giving up a fifth round pick for a player that can create plays in the short game at a level far above what the Commanders had on their 2025 roster is a steal. Deebo’s $20 million cap hit accrued from the deal barely puts a dent in Washington’s monstrous amount of cap space this offseason. With Deebo, Kingsbury can move him around pre snap to create favorable matchups or draw defenders away from Mclaurin. If Cliff implements a game plan that replicates what the Commanders did last year of getting the ball out quickly and creating big plays after the catch then Deebo WILL have a career year barring injuries. Although I’m not particularly keen on Deebo as a deep threat and have many questions about his work ethic, conditioning, and attitude, this trade comes with no real cost to the Commanders and could take their offense to a historically relevant level next season. People definitely either over hate or over rate Deebo and this will be the season that decides what public consensus is on the matter. What a trade for this front office though. They've done a spectacular job at turning this team from a joke prior to 2024 to a formidable foe and everyone is excited to see what Deebo can add to the equation this 2025 NFL season.
Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders:
Boy was I confused by the response to this trade. Some people went as far as labeling Geno Smith as a top ten quarterback, but that simply is not the case in the slightest. Seahawks fans that are watching him move forward and escape the endless 9-8 contender he had in Seattle view this trade with appreciation, yet excitement that maybe the franchise can escape mediocrity in the near future. In Las Vegas, Geno Smith will have something he didn’t quite have in Seattle, a real offensive line. He’s been operating behind an atrocious offensive line due to injuries, a lack of depth, and just a lack of talent across the board in Seattle the last few years. Now in Vegas Geno reunites with former Head Coach, Pete Carroll that revived his career and restored confidence in his ability to make picture-esque throws with consistency. This trade gives Las Vegas a nice transitional QB to distribute the ball to the abundance of weapons the Raiders will have in 2025. Brock Bowers is the best tight end in all of football in just his second season, while Jakobi Meyers can serve as a valuable WR2 so long as the Raiders select a stud wideout with their immense draft capital this year. The defensive side of the ball for the Raiders should be scary next year even after losing the heartbeat of their linebacking core, Robert Spillane, to the Patriots. With Wilkins back in the lineup to anchor the middle of Vegas’ defensive line the new look squad could be able to make some noise in the AFC West if Geno is up to the task to lead a potent offensive attack.
The main issue with Geno is that he makes bone headed throws in crucial moments against good defenses. And although he just left a division that had the 49ers and Rams of old give him fits in the past, the AFC West has a much scarier slate of defenses. Denver just added Dre Greenlaw at linebacker along with Talanoa Hufanga at safety who, if healthy, could make Denver the best defense in all of football after they were already elite in 2024. This along with Steve Spagnuolo’s consistently dominant unit for the Chiefs and the turnaround the Chargers have made with Jim Harbaugh will pose a real challenge for Geno. Geno Smith has evolved into a quarterback who has remarkable accuracy and touch on nearly every throw he makes; it's just that he has mental lapses where he forces a throw into traffic that isn’t there and gets picked off. Smith is the biggest wild card there is at the quarterback position with the highs proving he’s an elite quarterback and the lows making it appear that he forgot how to play the position. It seemed like in every have to have it situation, Geno didn’t have it in 2024. In week 9 it was a 13-13 game against the Rams with an opportunity to take the lead. On 1st and Goal to go with eleven minutes on the clock in the fourth quarter Geno took the snap, rolled left, and forced a throw under duress into triple coverage that resulted in a pick six. Unacceptable. The week prior saw the Seahawks squander four opportunities inside the ten yard line against the Buffalo Bills. The game should’ve been neck and neck, but instead the Bills throttled Seattle 31-10. When Geno’s hot he is can’t miss television. When he’s off and having ugly looking turnovers the TV remote must be close by to turn off the hideous display. At the end of the day Smith is far better than any QB the Raiders have had since prime Derek Carr, but people need to water down their expectations.
Christian Kirk to the Texans:
After Tank Dell tragically sustained yet another gruesome leg injury against the Chiefs to end the 2024 NFL season the Texans had a huge void at slot receiver alongside Nico Collins' dominant play. The main thing about Christian Kirk that comes up is how he fleeced the Jaguars on a four year $72 million contract, but that narrative is just overstated. Yeah the Jaguars reached with the deal, but in the first season Kirk was dominant and a catalyst for Trevor Lawrence’s 2022 playoff push. He put up 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns displaying his crisp route running alongside his ability to stretch the defense as a deep threat. The next year in twelve games played he put up nearly 800 yards and missed the final five games with a core muscle injury. This last year he missed just over half the season resulting in his worst season as a Jaguar after being demoted to the second wide receiver in the offense to account for Brian Thomas Jr. He ended up breaking his collarbone in week 8, putting him out for the season. The guy has played for two of the worst franchises in all of the NFL and produced when his cast was less than ideal in Arizona and Jacksonville. He is just 28 years old and entering a make or break contract year after the Texans acquired him for a seventh round 2026 draft pick.
He’s an adequate replacement for Dell and surely is in line for a thousand yard receiving season with the best quarterback he has ever played with. Houston is retooling their entire offensive line and has established an unshakable foundation after being in the NFL gulag as the second worst team in the entire league before Stroud saved the franchise. Kirk is perfect alongside Nico Collins because his ability to stretch the defense vertically surely will open up the middle of the field for Nico Collins. He also can operate in the intermediate passing game to open up looks for Nico’s marvelous contested catches on deep balls. This might be the most under the radar move in the NFL offseason. It’s wild how the Jaguar organization’s complete ineptitude could be pinned on Kirk’s “inability to stay healthy.” He sustained two uncommon injuries that don’t have implications on his future health. Both injuries don’t even affect his athleticism and he’s still in the prime of his career. The Jaguars losing had nothing to do with Kirk and more so had to do with their free agency haul in 2024. Overpaying Arik Armstead nearly $15 million to play defensive tackle at an average level, Gabe Davis $13 million a year to offer nearly no production at wide receiver, Mitch Morse $5 million a year to play center at a so so level, and an average punt returner, Devin Duvernay, just over $4 million a year was a travesty. This offseason was downright embarrassing before the 2024 season began and aged like milk now that the season has passed. Christian Kirk is special. Just wait and see for yourself.
