Top 10 Fantasy Value Picks for Each Position
Top 10 Value Wide Receivers:
1. Brian Thomas Jr: (ADP on Sleeper; 94)
It might be bold to put Brian Thomas atop this list, but I have good reason to do so. I think the volume and opportunity will be there for him. If Mitch Morse can help turn this offensive line around to give TLaw some more time in the pocket, then it just may be bombs away in Duval County. When assessing Christian Kirk next to him I see a guy who has proved everyone wrong as a number one option, but he’s only amassed 1,000 yards twice over the course of six seasons in the NFL. This is if you count his 2021 campaign of 982 yards like I am. He’s figured out effective ways to get open, but he doesn’t possess Brian Thomas’ skillset in this Jaguars offense. Gabe Davis as well is a ghost in every game except a select few primetime and playoff games where he’s looked like one of the best players on the field. Thomas possesses elite speed and great size as well as witty route running that allows him to find space in the short, intermediate, and long passing game. His ability to burn corners deep and snag contested highpoint catches is something that Lawrence has never had the luxury of throwing to during his tenure in Jacksonville. TLaw is under pressure and I project Thomas as his number one option in the passing game easily. 94 is too good of value in fantasy for a potential high end WR2 in fantasy.
2. Tank Dell: (ADP on Sleeper;51)
The skillset of this 160 pound phenom last year was most definitely enthralling to watch. Constantly blowing the top off of defenses and finding open space for Stroud to hit him in stride was his forte and their connection was immediate on the field. People seem to disregard the fact that CJ Stroud hand selected this guy and told the Texans GM he was a necessity for their roster. Diggs regressing from his superstar self and Nico Collins receiving all the workload to end last season has given the general public the false idea that Dell is number three, since the two aforementioned talents have had more time in the league than him. People simply forget Tank Dell Played eleven games last season, but missed another half a game with a concussion and another half game with a calf injury. So in ten games played in his rookie season Dell put up 700 yards on just 47 catches, which is mind boggling. Without him on offense the Texans fell apart with Collins as their number one guy in the playoffs. Being mocked as the 51st player around George Pickens and Tee Higgins I think he’s easily better than the two and will surprise many this year. He has the potential to put up a 1200+ yard season if Diggs continues to regress and fall off a cliff. Why do you think the Texans restructured Diggs’ contract to one year? Was it because he’s uber talented? I think not. And I have been a big fan of Mr Diggs so it’s hard to digest. Dell could end up as a low end WR1 or a high end WR2 in fantasy this upcoming season.
3. Cooper Kupp: (Sleeper ADP; 42)
The main reason Kupp has fallen off a cliff fantasy value wise is the addition of Puka Nucua to the Rams offense and although he’s a significant threat to Kupp’s fantasy value I project Kupp to return to high end WR2 status. Kupp taught Puka all the intricacies of running routes and creating separation in the NFL, which clearly has worked for him throughout his career as a consistent top end wideout in the league. Last year he was saddled with injury and struggled to be Stafford’s top target, but I expect a significant bounceback from Kupp in, presumably, the twilight of his career. If Keenan Allen can produce with elite numbers at an old age, why can’t Kupp at 31 years old? No one can tell me Cooper Kupp is bad value at pick number 42 because he’s been the face of the league at the receiver position before and usually doesn’t escape the first round of fantasy drafts.I’d honestly take him over most of the wide receivers projected between the 17th and 42nd picks in fantasy drafts. The ceiling is immaculate and receivers are easy to stack on your bench making Kupp an exceptional gamble at his current value.
4. Demario Douglas: (Sleeper ADP; He’ll be there with your last pick)
This guy is essentially viewed as a piece of trash to most football fans, especially in fantasy football. Hear me out though. Douglas was the lone bright spot in an atrocious Patriots offense led by a statue, Mac Jones, at QB. With the roster’s current construction he is the only proven player in this wide receiver core. Racking up 561 yards with a limited workload in 14 games is nothing to scoff at especially when looking at the team’s success last year at moving the ball down the field, which they made look impossible. He possesses elite speed and burst after his catches, which makes him a sneaky last pick in your fantasy drafts as a solid bench flex receiver. His talent is there when you see the ball in his hands and you could expect Jacoby Brissett and especially Drake Maye to look the youngster’s way when conducting Jerod Mayo’s new look offense this season. With a terrifyingly good defense returning several elite talents and new free agent additions, maybe this team is in contention for a wildcard spot. Douglas is good for 800-900 yards in the air this season and maybe a bit more on the ground with some jet sweep trickery. With the last pick in the draft it’s great value to select a wide receiver with a decent floor and a great ceiling.
5. Keon Coleman: (Sleeper ADP; 100)
Why is Keon Coleman such an intriguing prospect coming into the NFL? His 6’4’’ 216 pound frame did wonders for him in college giving him the ability to shield off defenders to highpoint passes. He produced against competition as well taking on Michigan’s Will Johnson during his tenure at State. He was the lone bright spot for MSU and then went to FSU to produce and boost his stock in the draft, which he did. His game speed is very impressive considering how he had a slow 40 time, which to me is a resounding positive in any wide receiver. Tests don’t tell the tale. The Bills struggled to get the passing game going at points and needed a wide receiver that could threaten the opposition vertically, which is why they decided to put their faith in Coleman. He didn’t ever have an ideal offense suitable to display his elite talent in college, but now has an ideal situation. With Josh Allen at QB it’s probable he’ll happily throw him an abundance of 50/50 balls. Considering how low his ADP is at 100 I think he’s an easy pick.
6. Marvin Harrison Jr: (Sleeper ADP;14)
I truly can’t believe where this guy is being drafted in fantasy football drafts. Especially on ESPN at pick 22, which might be one of the greatest steals in the entirety of fantasy football drafts. Even at pick 14 on Sleeper MHJ possesses a profile that is unrivaled when it comes to WR dominance at the collegiate level. He is right there with Jamarr Chase and Justin Jefferson coming into the NFL and given his Hall of Fame lineage I just don’t see a scenario in which Maserati Marv is not a top five to ten wideout. Kyler is under pressure to perform, coach Jonathan Gannon needs to save the sinking ship that has been the Arizona Cardinals, and the Cardinals have no other superstar threats. MHJ should be fed the ball constantly as a prospect that is unguardable and one that has the best fundamental and physical profile of any WR in this draft by a landslide. I don’t like Kyler Murray personally, but he could definitely use the best WR talent he has ever played with to his advantage this season. Lastly, who do you think is competing with MHJ in this offense? Michael Wilson? Trey McBride? Although I don’t think these two players aren’t good, I think the future 2024 OROTY can put up at least 1,300 yards this season. Take the rookie discount.
7. Xavier Legette: (Sleeper ADP; 134+)
Another guy with a rookie discount that is simply too good to be true is South Carolina product Xavier Legette. Coming off his best year of football ever at the collegiate level, I think the guy provides the spark that Carolina just didn’t have last year. If you think that Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson are going to outproduce Legette I don’t know what to say to you. Thielen may be fossilized by the end of the year, Diontae Johnson has always been plagued with drop issues, and the only option for Bryce Young to throw the ball up to is Legette. The recent acquisition of Robert Hunt at Guard will be the key addition to give Bryce Young a shot to grow into Dave Canales’ new look offense. Canales saved Baker’s career, so why can’t he help Bryce Young improve? Young was elite as a field general in college dissecting defenses with ease and his rookie year he had a sorry roster around him. Look for Legette to allow Bryce Young to start slinging the ball down the field, which wasn’t in Thielen or Mingo’s arsenal last year behind a fraudulent oline. You lose nothing by taking Legette, so make it happen in your draft.
8. Justin Jefferson: (ESPN ADP; 8, Sleeper ADP; 5)
This one seems comical as a “value” wide receiver, but JJettas has slid to around the seventh or eighth pick and that in itself is a joke to me. You can debate between him and Tyreek for the best receiver in the league and for me the crown belongs to Jefferson. His ability to catch everything thrown his way, create separation, perform every single week, and the mentality he possesses makes him a must draft wide receiver. Not many can tease Jamarr Chase about being a better player or can boast the richest contract of any wide receiver in NFL history like Justin Jefferson can. People seem to ignore the fact that Hockenson tore his ACL to end last season so his competition for targets boils down to Jordan Addison who’s a solid receiver, but nothing too special. For fantasy Jefferson will get force fed targets every week whether it be from Sam Darnold or eventually JJ McCarthy and although that sounds not too attractive Jefferson has proved he can put up numbers regardless of QB play. Just think Hockenson ate last year from Joshua Dobbs’ linsanity run and now it’s only Jefferson with a QB that needs to save his career. Everything points towards a top two finish at wide receiver and maybe even a top point scoring season in all of fantasy football. He went from top two in drafts to the five to seven range and he hasn’t gotten any worse. Draft the young man!
9. Calvin Ridley: (Sleeper ADP;79, ESPN ADP; 57)
Last year this guy was all over the internet as a lock to be the guy in Jacksonville, but the situation was not ideal to say the least upon the season’s start. An electrifying 100 yard game with a touchdown had me thinking he was looking to make a historical comeback after his mental issues in Atlanta that drove him away from the game. Honestly, watching him cry at the Titans introductory press conference when they played the clip of his mom showed how passionate he is to be great at the NFL level again. The contract he received will surely restore his confidence that he is a top tier wideout, even in the current landscape of the NFL. Unlike his teammate Deandre Hopkins, Ridley runs hard, crisp routes and does so at the highest level. Watching him play is poetry in motion at points and with a gunslinger at QB and an investment into two offensive tackles the last few drafts the Titans are changing their philosophy from ground and pound to air raid, which I love. Levis has an absolute cannon of an arm and looked like he was on some type of drug when leading a monstrous comeback against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Eyes huge and veins bulging, Will Levis made one thing certain that Monday night. He will do anything to put his team in a position to win. My favorite play from him was when he stripped the Colts DB after throwing an INT and recovered the fumble as well. He intrigues me as someone I thought was a joke going into last year’s draft and boy was I wrong. You gotta be tough to play behind the Pop Warner offensive line Tennessee had last year. Ridley is easily wide receiver one for Levis’ play style considering that almost every one of Deandre Hopkins’ highlight plays were certainly missed offensive pass interference calls. The situation is lined up for Ridley to explode this year. Do you like to gamble?
10. Tee Higgins: (Sleeper ADP; 55)
With Joe Burrow going from one Anakin Skywalker haircut to another this offseason one thing is for certain. He is pissed off and wants some serious revenge against his division. The main issue is that his offensive line shortens his life span each game, but for Burrow he makes no excuses. With Higgins on his contract year he will be a vital piece to Burrow’s game as his second option behind Jamarr Chase. Higgins has always had elite skills that have been masked by Chase’s play, which makes him primed for a breakout year to prove everyone wrong that casts doubts on whether or not the Bengals will re-sign him. If you are in the camp that believes the Bengals are taking the AFC North then Higgins is a must draft especially when you realize the void of usage that Mixon left upon his departure to Houston. This offense is about to lean on Burrow’s passing game more so than it has in year’s past considering the running back room is incredibly thin this year with Zack Moss (a player I loved out of Utah) and Chase Brown who is nothing special. I personally see Burrow putting up 4,500 yards and potentially taking the Bengals to the Super Bowl if all goes right. Everyone has already seen how Burrow feels about Tee Higgins and that he’s probably the most reliable WR2 in all of football in an elite passing offense. Where do I sign? I’ve never believed in Higgins enough to put him at my flex/WR2 spot, but this is the year I’m sold on him at pick 55.
HM: Jayden Reed (TD volume), Adonai Mitchell (could be a part of a top five offense)
Top 10 Value Running Backs
1. Breece Hall: (Sleeper ADP; 8, ESPN ADP; 3)
My favorite player in the NFL next to Nick Chubb, Mr. Breece Hall. This guy has a knack for breaking tackles and finding open space. When he switches gears after finding space he’s gone in a flash. He runs with a fervor that is only rivaled by my precious Nick Chubb. Now that my bias is not in the way, here's my thought process. An old Rodgers coming off a serious injury is someone I don’t expect to particularly have an incredible season from a production standpoint. In the offseason the Jets acquired perennial All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith in free agency, tackle Olu Fashanu out of Penn State with the twelfth pick in this year’s draft, Ravens starting Guard John Simpson, Morgan Moses at tackle who had success with the Jets in 2021, and now are grateful Mekhi Becton is no longer a Jet. This will be, by far, the best offensive line Breece has ever ran behind and he’s ready to be a workhorse RB akin to prime Nick Chubb. I can easily see Hall eclipsing 1500 rushing yards this season when remembering that the team no longer has CJ Uzomah to set the record for most holding penalties on 20+ yard runs and touchdown runs. If Hall was RB2 last year as a PPR merchant behind a garbage line with zero QB play then why can’t he replicate last year with even better production and less checkdowns from Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian that had zero chance of going anywhere? The Jets defense and running game will propel them to first place in their division. I think he’s a sure thing for RB1 this season next to Christian McCafferey in the race for supremacy at the running back position in fantasy football. I foresee Hall having a shot at putting up an AP 2,000 yard season in his prime for sure.
2. Travis Etienne: (Sleeper ADP; 23)
Everything in Etienne’s bio points to incredible value at pick 23. After finishing as RB 3 overall in 2023 he seems like a no brainer pick. Tank Biggsby can’t command any of his touches at the NFL level and probably has the most fumbles with the fewest carries of any running back I have seen since Melvin Gordon. If Jacksonville is remotely successful this year Etienne will once again be a key component in their offense. An exceptional pass catcher that rushes for a 1000 yards every season barring injury is everything you need for an RB1, which makes him an absolute steal at his current ADP. It’s honestly mind boggling to see him behind Saquon in fantasy drafts because Etienne is much more of a sure thing than Saquon when it comes to injury history, which Etienne has, but is nowhere near the laundry list of ailments Barkley has endured. I’ll happily take Etienne even if it means reaching. RB’s are a dime a dozen while receivers have good value players at every point in a fantasy draft. Be smart, take him before your league mates and avoid Drake London and Olave with huge inflation.
3. Josh Jacobs: (ESPN ADP; 38)
Coming off a down year his price reflects, I envision a situation in Green Bay in which he’s the only real threat at the running back position. A bruising running back capable of commanding an entire workload is a foreign concept for coach Lafleur who usually has embraced a committee workload for his running backs. This year is an outlier though because behind Jacobs there is no real threat at the position. Aaron Jones consistently was injured when used and AJ Dillon would be forced to fill the void to no avail. AJ Dillon’s crowning achievement is a cool Madden Ultimate team card and Marshawn Lloyd doesn’t appear to me as competition for Jacobs. The Packers paid Jacobs and behind the Packers offensive line I envision a year in which Jacobs feasts and finds the endzone plenty. The Packers are on the rise and I think the offense will be centered around Jacobs’ ability to open up the play action passing game and tons of usage considering the magnitude of his four year contract that he desired. He’s in his prime, doesn’t have an injury history, and has cemented himself as one of the top pure running backs in all of the NFL. At pick 38 having RB1 upside with an RB2 floor is a value that Five and Below can’t match!
4. Zamir White: (Sleeper ADP; 84)
Antonio Pierce’s type of guy, Zamir White, is simply incredible value for where he’s being selected. When Jacobs went down White embodied the heart of a lion rushing for an average of 100 yards in the last four games of the season after seeing the field sparingly. He looked hungry for the opportunity trucking through defenders and running behind an offensive line that was solid, but nothing special. He played such inspired ball that the Raiders let their superstar RB walk in free agency to the Green Bay Packers. People sleep on this Raiders team and I think ultimately those who do, don’t know ball. Their defensive line is going to be a nightmare to match up against, their receiving core is loaded with talent, and last but not least their head coach has all their players behind him. He inherited a dumpster fire and instead of rolling over he established a mentality that the Raiders are going to sock you square in the jaw for years to come. With Alexander Mattison as his only competition in Las Vegas I see a season where White finds the endzone plenty as the Raiders will make this year’s playoffs, whether that be as a wildcard berth or a division title. People disregard the fact that Davante Addams is a monster, Jakobi Meyers is a force at WR2, and that Brock Bowers is the greatest TE in college football history. At pick 84 Zamir White’s opportunity to shine is too immense to ignore. His floor as an RB2 is something you must have on your radar. Boomer will be in his living room fired up about the Raidas and man am I here for it. Also the selection of versatile offensive line prospect Jackson Powers-Johnson in the middle of the second round might end up being the steal of the draft that vaults the Raiders into very serious contenders.
5. Nick Chubb: (Average ADP; 95+)
What I witnessed last year at the beginning of the NFL season with Nick Chubb almost made me throw up. Nick Chubb’s same knee that has been obliterated over his career multiple times got absolutely crushed. The commentators couldn’t show the replay and Chubb had to miss the rest of the year. The message conveyed by the Browns organization is that they will be incredibly cautious with Nick Chubb in the last year of his contract and I thought it was understandable considering the magnitude of the injury I had seen. I wanted to throw up. Then, on my 22nd birthday my buddy sent me a post by the official NFL account on Instagram and I probably replayed the post 15 times in all. My favorite player in all the NFL was in the weight room doing an average squat for a gym rat. All he did was six plates on each side ass to grass. Nick Chubb is going to return as a formidable force, mark my words. He has been the heartbeat for the Browns the entirety of his career taking them to the AFC Championship with Baker Mayfield and I’m sure he wants to make another legacy run alongside Cleveland’s stout defense. His value in the 90+ pick range is unmatched given that he has been the best pure runner of the football in the league. His QB, Deshaun Watson, is honestly a joke with all his guaranteed money and the only way the Browns contend for the most stacked division in football is behind Nick Chubb’s ground game. If you have doubts about Chubb just draft Mr automatic ten fantasy point Jerome Ford at pick 127. Their offensive line is still loaded and the opportunity will be there. Taking both players ensures that you have an automatic RB2 at the very least. Chubb has never escaped the top 25 in fantasy drafts so take the superstar’s discount. I think he seriously could be an RB1 in fantasy football, but as I let you know I am extremely biased towards the man. You do you, but I’m taking the chance.
6. David Montgomery: (Average ADP; 66-70)
In the Lions scheme one thing is very apparent. David Montgomery will find the endzone and he will continue to be a formidable foe between the tackles behind the league’s best offensive line. Brad Holmes stole him for six million dollars a year and I believe the philosophy Detroit made last year will still hold true. Don’t put too much wear and tear on Gibbs’ tires between the tackles and let Montgomery feast. He is a monster that made fans takes about losing Jamaal Williams look silly. Some of the plays I witnessed Montgomery make made my jaw hit the floor. The amount of sheer balance, power, and ability to shift gears in open space got me off my couch yelling for my Lions. The run against the Chargers in Los Angeles was immaculate especially when he cut it to the outside. He has incredibly low expectations for his talent, which makes no sense to me. He’s a lock for an automatic middle end RB2 as his floor that makes him intriguing at such a low draft spot. I love David Montgomery. He was saddled with skeptical offensive line play in Chicago and was trapped in several piss poor offenses before debuting on my Lions. Behind this offensive line, not drafting him would be a colossal mistake. If Miles Sanders was viable in Philly then how is this guy not more than viable in Detroit as a FAR better talent?
7. Kenneth Walker: (Sleeper ADP; 52)
Last year Walker dealt with a myriad of injuries that affected his numbers and caused him to miss two contests in 2023. That being said he finished as RB17 which would cement him as a middle of the pack RB2 with fantasy football’s standards. His backup, Zach Charbonnet, is laughably bad as a prospect and I think K9 is due for a massive year in Seattle where we could see him sneak into low end RB1 status barring injury. That is my main concern when assessing him. My reasoning for clowning Charbonnet is that he was the only Michigan running back I saw fail behind their godly offensive line and nothing about him jumps out at you. K9’s talent is nuclear and last year the Seahawks offensive line struggled to find bodies to put on the field bringing out 42 year old Jason Peters to play tackle for them. I think Mike MacDonald, their new coach from Baltimore, is going to lean heavily on the run game to generate offense and K9 is their only threat. At pick 52 you can address others positions with your earlier picks and have him fall directly into your lap at an exquisite price. K9 is a top tier talent on a solid roster, which both are a good recipe for success. Not to mention he’s only 23 years old. Baby Breece Hall?
8. Jonathan Brooks: (Sleeper ADP; 91, ESPN ADP; 60)
This guy really peaks my interest as a prospect heading into the NFL. How often is it that you encounter a guy who puts up 1,452 yards from scrimmage in eleven games with eleven touchdowns as well in college? Not very. Considering the immense draft capital Carolina invested in the man with their second round pick and the addition of a top tier guard Robert Hunt, it’s safe to say that Brooks might be due for a nice rookie year. He explodes off the tape with bursts on long runs that make you think he could be a superstar, but his ACL tear will keep him off the field for a couple games most likely. The severity of the tear wasn’t significant enough to be worrisome and at a value of pick 91 on Sleeper he might just be a good little pickup on your fantasy team. This offense most definitely will be an improvement from last season and no one should be afraid of Chubba Hubbard taking a significant workload away from the 21 year old collegiate phenom. Brooks is trending up on ESPN though at pick 60, but I highly doubt your league mates are investing that high of a pick into Brooks when factoring his bad roster and injury into the equation. I believe in Dave Canales and the idea that he will look to get the run game going in Carolina to comfort Bryce Young and help him get a rhythm in the NFL. And remember, NO FRANK REICH!
9. Jaylen Warren: (Sleeper ADP; 99)
Watching this guy tote the rock sometimes makes me think two things. First, he runs like he’s trying to make it to the NFL and second he might be twice as effective as a playmaker than Najee Harris. Harris runs in a way that you’d imagine someone with a piano on their back to run. Incredibly slow with no agility whatsoever. His cutback against the Browns rivaled Austin Ekeler’s infamous turtle pace run vs. the Green Bay Packers that confirmed Ekeler was washed completely. So when assessing the Steelers and their current situation I see Najee Harris as someone who’s fighting for his job as an RB1. He can’t even average four yards a carry while Warren is at five and is showing flashes of greatness week in and week out. Arthur Smith as an OC ensures the Steelers will be heavily centered around the run giving Warren plenty of opportunity to see the field. Not only does he play every snap at 100%, he’s notorious for blowing up anybody in his way as a blocker for his teammates hunting whomever dares to step in his way. It’s this kind of heart that earns reps and the Steel City is falling in love with the guy. Steelers love Warren, fans love Warren, and he simply is the better of the Steelers’ two backs. Adding Troy Fautanu at guard might be a catalyst for Jaylen Warren to be a solidified fantasy option as an RB2. At pick number 99 Warren is great value as an RB2 or bench depth RB in case one of your juggernauts go down. Warren is someone I see significantly taking a step up this year as long as Arthur Smith doesn’t insist on giving his less explosive backs the rock like he did in Atlanta.
10. Will Shipley: (ADP; 5,000,000)
This is my biggest reach on all these lists quite obviously. I just have a strong belief that Saquon will be missing some time in this regular season. Everything else metric wise points towards Barkley having an incredible season, but I’m not looking past injury concerns. I’ve gotten stung by Waller for two years after his nuclear fantasy performances that cemented him as a top three tight end. He was a key component in one of my fantasy teams. I developed an attachment to his game because he was all the Raiders had in the passing game and the rest is history. Will Shipley has proven in college that he can run at an efficient clip and excels as a pass catcher, which will be necessary in case Barkley goes down. With his only competition for backup being Kenneth Gainwell and the likely chance that Saquon goes down, it might be a sneaky pick to take Shipley given how valuable the running back position truly is. Behind the Eagles offensive line he would have an easy time producing for fantasy owners on screen passes and with a solid workload in the ground game. Shipley is another player that does well on yards per carry being above five yards for each of his three seasons at Clemson. Perhaps my favorite thing about the rookie is that he has no tread on his tires receiving less than 15 carries on the ground per game. This pick is for a miracle home run. Tread lightly.
HM: Brian Robinson (honestly should be above Will Shipley), Bucky Irving (Rachaad White has putrid efficiency on the ground)
Top 10 Value Quarterbacks
1. Jordan Love: (Sleeper ADP;85)
The Jordan Love emergence is inbound this year after receiving the richest contract in NFL history. After watching him play the game to end last season I think fans saw something different about Love’s game. Love began to throw the ball all over the field in the flow of the offense. Tight windows, tight spirals, and no turnovers from Love became quite a sight to behold. The biggest thing with Love to begin the season was getting his groove and it took him nine weeks to do so. It’s almost like fans now forget that quarterbacks need time. Look at Peyton Manning, Josh Allen, and most legends in the game and you will see that what Love did in his first season was truly unheard of. Then you add his playoff success despite the top playmaker in their offense, Aaron Jones, consistently dealing with injury. It makes you put things into perspective. The Packers improved at every level of their roster top to bottom, even with their coaching staff. This offense is a top seven offense behind Love’s stellar arm and Josh Jacobs ability to maintain a large workload, giving the Packers much needed balance. I find it crazy how smoothly Love conducted this offense with a nearly entire rookie cast as pass catchers and Christian Watson missing several contests. I think Love is a steal at the 85th pick. I genuinely have him in the MVP conversation this year if he continues to play like he did the second half of last year. 25 TDs /5 INTs in his last 11 games (including playoffs) with two multiple interception games is something you see from someone trying to emulate Aaron Rodgers’ game, not a guy with low expectations and large shoes to fill.
2. Anthony Richardson: (Sleeper ADP;59 ESPN ADP;46)
The QB with the best rushing upside in all of fantasy football is Anthony Richardson this upcoming season. His combination of size and speed will make for a goal line nightmare for any defense he faces. Shane Steichen sounds committed to the run game with Anthony Richardson assuming a large role. Not to mention the Colts offensive line is solid, they just extended Michael Pittman Jr, and they drafted Adonai Mitchell who’s capable of making big plays alongside Team Captain, Josh Downs. Stiechen was largely to credit for the Eagles offensive success with Hurts. He understands the importance of variance within an offense to keep a defense honest. Even with AR not having too much game experience in his young career I’m confident Steichen can help jumpstart his career and ease him into his potential to throw long bombs and darts across the middle of the field. Simplifying AR’s reads will equate to fantasy football success that’ll see him become a top three QB in fantasy. He’ll go around pick 46-59 depending on what fantasy app you use and his upside is of biblical proportions. He is a bit of a risk after we saw him throw his body on the line far too much in his first games, but maturity will teach him not to embark down the path Cam Newton underwent. AR is essentially a bigger and faster version of Josh Allen in the run game, which would be terrifying to tackle. Jonathan Taylor will also be a huge weight off of AR’s shoulders since he has a steady ground game to fall back on in case of disastrous woes in his first few games in 2024. I view the pick as safe with incredible upside, which is why you should love him at his current ADP especially if no receivers pique your interests in that range.
3. Dak Prescott: (Sleeper ADP; 75)
This pick seems like too much of a no brainer in my mind. He will be a top five or six QB in fantasy because of the situation the Dallas Cowboys are in. Two of the four teams in their division are an absolute joke (Commanders and Giants), Dak Prescott is under a contract year alongside star wideout Ceedee Lamb, and Dallas has maybe the worst running back room in the entire NFL. My main thought when seeing the Cowboys pass on getting any RB help and go back to ole reliable Ezekiel Elliott, was that the Cowboys are just an air raid in your face football team. I’m convinced Jerry Jones watched his grandson play Madden 20 with the Cowboys and watched Ezekiel Elliott run all over the football field. Then he had a lightbulb moment and missed the marriage the Cowboys had with Zeke. This led to Dallas management settling for the washed talent as their lead guy. Right now the best attributes of both their main backs are pass blocking and checkdown value that indicate Dak has to play heroball for the Cowboys to retake the NFC East. I don’t like Dak personally, but in the regular season with Ceedee Lamb their offense will be in many shootout, down to the wire, games. This high of a floor at such a late point in the draft is the definition of value.
4. Joe Burrow: (Sleeper ADP; 65)
The competitive fire that lies within Joe Burrow leads me to believe this year will be his year in Cincy. Adding strength in the offseason and meticulously rehabbing his wrist injury are two positives that show Joe Shiesty means serious business. Like Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, Cincy had decided to turn their offense into an air raid attack supplemented by Zack Moss’ downhill running in a committee with Chase Brown. This indicates to me that Cincinnati is going all in on the talent they have in the passing game and think Moss is serviceable enough to be their guy. He showed flashes, but is nothing special lining up against AFC North fronts behind a mediocre offensive line. Burrow’s career has shown he doesn’t care about how his offensive line plays he will battle through nine sacks, take huge shots, and still allow for his team to compete for a Super Bowl. After the dumpster fire that was the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals, Burrow will put up a fight to truly begin cementing the legacy he will leave behind. A healthy Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins will ensure Burrow has a wide range of weapons who can operate at an elite level. The addition of Jermaine Burton also can help fill the void Tyler Boyd leaves behind at WR3. Don’t forget Tanner Hudson also stepped up his game at points last year giving Burrow many options to choose from in the upcoming season. It had to be somewhat demoralizing for Joe Burrow to watch on from the sideline being unable to hold and throw a football. The NFL’s Anakin Skywalker is looking to put up numbers that see him at the very top of the MVP race.
5. Justin Herbert: (Sleeper ADP; 121)
Although Herbert has very few reliable weapons in Los Angeles after watching Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both depart in free agency I believe Jim Harbaugh and the organization has real plans for the phenom. Ladd McConkey can provide Herbert with the same reliability the Raiders had in Hunter Renfrow and QJ couldn’t have a worse season than his rookie campaign. The Chargers have decided to get bodies in the NFL Draft that are solid enough for Herbert to get going. Behind two premiere NFL offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and hopefully Joe Alt, Herbert could have plenty of time to launch the football. If Herbert gets loads of time in the pocket he may be eyeing up 5000 passing yards with a serious head coach at the helm. He has suspect RB play as Gus Edwards being his main guy as a goalline bruiser and then JK Dobbins and Kamani Vidal who don’t pose a real threat. Herbert is tired of losing and having his star wideout Mike Williams get injured every season for him that was a given. Pass defense in the AFC West is weakened this season with the departure of L’Jarius Sneed and the gutting of the Broncos roster outside of Pat Surtain. The Raiders also have a negligible secondary, which provides Herbert plenty of opportunity to shine in the 2024 NFL season. Him being at pick 121 should be criminal with the amount of sheer talent he possesses. He won’t simply rollover and let other elite QB talents from the 2020 NFL Draft reach new heights without making any statement. The Chargers are looking to go from a laughing stock to a formidable foe in the AFC West and Herbert NEEDS to carry Harbaugh to the promised land given this current roster’s construction. I think he can weather the storm and alleviate the plight of Chargers fans (They don’t truly exist).
6. Kyler Murray: (Sleeper ADP; 82)
With James Conner getting older I foresee plenty of Kyler in the ground game even after his injury to his ACL, which has huge value in the fantasy football world. This year’s WR corps of Michael Wilson, MHJ, and Trey McBride might be the best talent group Kyler has had in the NFL to date. With his play style of escaping the pocket and looking to launch the football down the field after displaying insane feats of escapability, MHJ is the perfect candidate to throw the ball up to. At pick 82 Murray’s upside is far too immense to just write off. This is a time where Kyler really needs to prove his #1 overall pick status. He better have his best passing year in his young career or else he’ll be receiving a lot of ridicule about his addiction to the Call of Duty franchise. My main weakness I find when watching Kyler play against premier defenses is that he sometimes struggles to stand in the pocket and whistle throws down the middle of the field due to his small stature. The thing is though I don’t know if his weaknesses can really hold him down in this Cardinals offense because MHJ is already a hall of famer before he sets foot on the NFL field could be better than the DeAndre Hopkins we saw in Arizona when Kyler was eyeing up a potential run at the MVP trophy. I’ve hated Kyler for the entirety of his career and haven’t been a believer, but there’s never been a better opportunity for his skillset. Nearly every season Kyler has shown glimpses of his potential. He has been saddled by Kliff Kingsbury in the late season due to Kingsbury’s unwillingness to change in his first few seasons, which won’t be a problem with Jonathan Gannon. I’m excited to see what Murray can bring to the table from a fantasy perspective and think he’s a safe fantasy QB in the top 8-10 range as a floor.
7. Jared Goff: (Sleeper ADP;114)
Nothing really beats having a Ben Johnson offense when it comes to fantasy football. The offense is set up to be charitable to those who earn their stripes. This will become cemented in stone for the foreseeable future as pieces develop and add to the equation of an already extremely dynamic offense. The piece this year I’m captivated by is Jameson Williams. If Goff takes homerun shots to Jameson Williams more often this year we might see the Lions putting up 28 points a game and I’m serious. Jameson Williams had glimpses to end the season in 2023 where he was faster than every other player on the field that had fans in awe. I expect the Lions offense to improve from last season with the addition of Zietler, a former All-Pro guard to go alongside Jamo’s leap and Josh Reynolds departure. Goff is in a system where it’s nearly impossible to fail and his floor is very high considering his supporting cast. A whole city behind his back, a hungry fan base, and a contract saying he is the chosen one is all that needs to be said to justify taking Goff. Everything rests on his shoulders to lift this fanbase out of one of the worst histories in all of the NFL. If the line stays healthy and he just remains steady he for sure is a top 12 fantasy QB at the very least at pick 114. He doesn’t have you jumping out of your seat in drafts, but he’s good enough to feel comfortable taking him.
8. Trevor Lawrence: (Sleeper ADP; 128)
With investments into his receiving core of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis the message is really clear from the Jaguars front office. They want Trevor Lawrence to justify his contract and take this team over the top to upset the Houston Texans. Having Mitch Morse to add to his pass protection will bode well for TLaw since he usually has to worry about getting his head taken off on most plays. My issue with Trevor is that he usually gets nuked by good defenses like we saw against the Niners in the regular season and at points the Jaguars offense looks completely lost. If they decide to continue using Evan Engram as a checkdown monster with this WR core then I don’t really know what to say. Lawrence makes some incredible throws in the NFL, but is yet to live up to the generational comparisons he received on draft night. He processes the field well, has plenty of weapons, and a good run game to fall back on, which should contribute to a very solid season of fantasy football. At pick 128 he seriously might be the best value QB in all of fantasy football if Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas show up week one. All the tools and a division that’s up for grabs despite the emergence of the Houston Texans makes for a potential breakout year for Trevor. I personally would not like him on my team, but there are certain draft strategies where selecting him late could bolster your entire lineup and it will work out in the end.
9. Will Levis: (Sleeper ADP; 179)
With an unknown ceiling, top ten pick JC Latham at offensive tackle, and the addition of Calvin Ridley, Will Levis might be a sneaky draft choice towards the end of a fantasy football draft. Ideally if you get him on your team you’d like a second insurance QB because of how unproven this new look Titans team is. One thing is certain about Will Levis and that is he will compete as hard as anyone else on the field and his arm is one of the best in the league from a throw power standpoint. I’m intrigued to see a Titans offense that doesn’t punch up the gut against an eight man box like the case was with Henry last year. The biggest question mark in Tennessee is whether or not the line protecting Levis can show up on Sundays because if it can he can do something special with a trio of Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd to throw to. I think the presence of Tyler Boyd will be huge for Levis and hopefully he can mentor Treylon Burks to finally make an impact that he is yet to make. Will Levis showed so many flashes to just ignore considering most rookie QB’s would have a nightmare season behind the offensive line he dealt with. Calvin Ridley is the name I have circled on this roster because the fit with Levis’ cannon is uncanny and I can already see Ridley having a massive year if Latham could hold up on the outside and Skoronski takes a notable leap. With an unknown floor and an unknown ceiling selecting Levis is just a matter of whether or not you believe the Titans offense will be completely different from last year. At pick 179 he’s going behind JJ McCarthy and Taysom Hill, which could make for a comically undervalued solid fantasy QB if the Titans can put things together. I like the signing of Tony Pollard to complement Tyjae Spears since they’re both capable pass catchers for Levis that should aid in helping the young Kentucky QB find some consistency at the NFL level. His value is too low to not be mentioned on this list.
10. Lamar Jackson: (Sleeper ADP; 39)
This name is one that should have no business being on a value list, but here we are. Lamar has had two MVP regular seasons and has been consistently a top three QB in all of fantasy over the course of his career, which is why I have him on the list since he’s the fourth QB being taken in fantasy. He is a force on the ground and losing weight in the offseason will add some of that electrifying speed that put him on the scene back into his arsenal. He just came off of his best year passing the football and is looking to only build upon the improvements he has made in the passing game. With the defense he has there should be plenty of opportunities for him to score the football and dual threat QBs come at a premium in the fantasy football economy. He is by far the most consistent and safe dual threat QB one can pick in drafts and at pick 39 it’s easy to put two star receivers around him and a formidable crew of running backs, since he just escapes the range where you are drafting a QB way too high. I would not be shocked whatsoever to see Zay Flowers continue to grow into a star WR1 and Isaiah Likely to enter the fold in some two tight end run formations where he can go out on routes. I think Likely will be the recipe for him reaching 4000 yards if he does this year because he can seriously ball. Andrews hopefully can be his old self as well, which would make the Ravens unstoppable with the addition of King Henry at RB. The top rushing QB in the top rushing offense that has taken huge strides in the passing game makes for an automatic fantasy juggernaut each season barring injury. He was the QB on my championship team last year as well as many others I imagine.
HM: Bryce Young (invested in skill groups and brought in a stud at guard in the offseason. Couldn’t be worse than his rookie year), Jayden Daniels (horrendous supporting cast, injury risk).
Top 10 Value Tight Ends
1. Brock Bowers: (ESPN ADP;133)
Size and speed at the tight end position is now king and Bowers might already be the fastest in the league at the position. He is no slouch as a blocker as well which should keep him on the field a lot for his rookie year. With his skillset you can split him out wide and throw it up for grabs much like the Raiders did with Darren Waller. He easily could dominate as a rookie and is incredibly undervalued because of the lack of care for the tight end position in today’s NFL. At pick 133 securing a TE1 is ludacris and I know the feeling after buying into Sam Laporta on every one of my fantasy teams last season. The Raiders have something brewing down in Las Vegas and bad QB play will only help his case as a reliable safety valve for AOC or Minshew. Teams facing the Raiders can’t double Bowers because then you let Davante Addams and Jakobi Meyers torch you all game. With the pick of Jackson Powers-Johnson and the current roster’s makeup I think the opportunity is far more golden than the average public thinks. You don’t win two national championships and two John Mackey awards (given to the nation’s top tight end) as the team’s best player and then be average in the NFL. I simply do not see why he’s so criminally undervalued. Michael Mayer is a complete joke and Bowers is a massive wideout that Anotonio Pierce needs as a key chess piece in order to contend. Laugh at me if I’m wrong, I don’t care I’m taking the young man and drafting a beastly team around my late round TE.
2. Kyle Pitts: (Sleeper ADP; 56, ESPN ADP; 68)
Really man. Pitts at number two. Am I really that much of a sucker to believe Kyle Pitts won’t let me down, yes. He has had the worst combination of QB play and head coach play calling of probably any real tight end in the national football league and now he has his shot. Remember when Kirk Cousins made Jordan Reed look like he might be one of the top pass catchers in the league leaning heavily on him as a mismatch or when Cousins targeted Hockenson enough to help him put up career numbers? I do. Kirk historically loves looking for his big tight ends and outside of Drake London, Kyle Pitts is his top pass catcher. If Kirk can harness some of that magic he had last season before his Achilles tear then Kyle Pitts might sneak his way into contention for tight end number one overall. I truly believe in Pitts because Arthur Smith’s philosophy of keeping the ball out of his star’s hands should have earned him a prison sentence, not a job with the Pittsburgh Steelers as an OC. Kyle Pitts lit up when he heard the news that he doesn’t have to deal with Ridder’s horrendous play any longer and I think Kirk is keen on putting the ball into Kyle Pitts’ hands as much as he can. This will be his best statistical season to date and at pick 68 I think he’s good enough value to scoop up for your team to lockdown your TE1. He may fall further if you’re in a league of GMs that lost faith in Pitts’ promise.
3. Sam Laporta: (ESPN ADP;31st, Sleeper ADP; 20)
My main man, Mr head honcho at the tight end position, Sam Laporta is as automatic as a tight end can possibly be in today’s game. He looked dominant in his rookie campaign and had dads hoisting beers all over the mitten while watching their Lions play inspired ball. He is great after the catch, has amazing hands, and just overpowers defenders with sheer might when Detroit needs yards or on crucial downs. He’s young and durable as well. I remember watching him go down against the Minnesota Vikings in the Lions last game at Ford Field. As I sat in the stands watching on I was sick to my stomach to see him carted off the field after a knee injury. Instead Laporta came back in the playoffs like nothing happened and he did his thing as always. He is a crucial component to the Lions passing game and I see no world where he doesn’t at least match what he produced last year statistically. In an offense that’s sure to reach new heights I think Laporta by far is the safest tight end pick in all of fantasy football. The only reason I have him number three is because he comes at a premium price going 31st on ESPN and 20th on Sleeper. These might be crucial picks for your roster composition unless you go the route of shoring up a position before taking Laporta i.e two wideouts/two running backs.
4. Trey McBride: (Sleeper ADP; 43, ESPN ADP; 53)
McBride is the perfect safety net for an owner in fantasy football. In the short to intermediate passing game he vacuums up most passes in the Cardinals offensive attack. His hands were incredibly reliable as he operated as a top option pass catcher for whomever set foot on the field for the Cardinals last year. He’s QB proof, he’s bust proof, and he might be a part of an offense that sees a significant jump in production this season. McBride’s game complements MHJ perfectly, which is why I don’t see the phenom as a huge threat to McBride and his skillset. Having a big target over the short middle of the field is an ideal situation for a QB whose weakness is his size. McBride to me is Evan Engram on steroids who makes plays that actually mean something to the team vs. Engram who just catches a million passes for hardly any yardage. I see so much potential in selecting McBride at his value and I think it will yield success for your team in case all your other TE targets go before you can select them. At pick 53 on ESPN he has an extremely safe floor, but less upside than Kyle Pitts. You can take a sure thing solid piece or try and hit a home run on an underhand toss with Pitts. If you have an insane draft you go McBride to be safe or Pitts and a backup option like T.J Hockenson to give depth for a playoff push and cement your team at the top.
5. Dalton Kincaid: (Sleeper ADP; 48, ESPN ADP;58)
Originally I thought the Buffalo Bills overreached on Kincaid completely, but as the season went on and he found his stride it was only him and Khalil Shakir that Josh Allen could trust. Kincaid’s versatility on the field is a nice perk. Being able to line up in the slot like Brock Bowers and make plays while being a nice safety valve in this Bills offensive attack is just what Josh Allen needs after Diggs’ meltdown. He’s not a player that particularly wows you on paper, but he’s relatively safe given how weak the tight end position is. At pick 58 he has potential to match Trey McBride’s production, which is a huge selling point considering all the targets and drama that getting rid of Diggs frees this team of. A reasonable expectation of Kincaid is 800 to 850 yards, which almost puts him up with Travis Kelce’s production after his regular season regression in 2023. I will say the upside on Kincaid might be the closest to his floor of any player on this list, but the sample size in an efficient passing offense for Kincaid is yet to be seen. Most players on the Bills had a dip in stats when Buffalo shifted to running an offense solely around the ground game. I don’t see him being a top three tight end, but with Josh Allen it most definitely is a possibility to consider.
6. Jake Ferguson: (Sleeper ADP;87, ESPN ADP;102)
It is no secret that Dak Prescott loves his young tight end on the football field. Last year it was to the surprise of many that Ferguson was a huge component in the Cowboys passing attack, but believe it or not I had a buddy tell me Dak loved him in camp and that he had no competition at the tight end position. Boy was he right. With Schoonmaker as an effective scratch and no one else in line to vulture his reps I see Ferguson as the clear second option in Dallas. Prescott, desperate to secure a huge payday, will most definitely feed Ferguson while Ceedee gets a majority of defensive attention. The only concern I have is that the Cowboys offense may be incredibly volatile this upcoming season with the departure of offensive line pieces and the lack of skill present in their RB room. Not to mention the Giants and Eagles bolstered their defenses significantly in the offseason to create a new culture for both teams on that side of the ball. Ferguson is in a massively boom or bust offense, but has the best value of any Cowboys player in fantasy at pick 102 and could be an absolute steal.
7. David Njoku: (ESPN ADP; 91)
The joker is looking to become a legitimate weapon this year in the Browns Deshaun Watson passing attack, which hasn’t been too impressive yet with the contract he has. The upside with Njoku is that he is a legitimate player improving each year he has played and he’s coming off a career year last season. Another year of Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy in the mix, and nothing else too notable in the Browns receiving core. Behind Cooper I see Njoku as easily the second most reliable target for Deshuan Watson. With Watson’s poor accuracy on throws that used to be routine for the superstar of old he might have to settle for shorter throws, zipping the ball into the intermediate range. I think condensing the passing game is a must for him to put up decent numbers. This means the Njoku jackpot is on the table for someone hungry for a safeish tight end pick. Tight ends usually don’t come anywhere near the best wide receivers so settling is often the right play. At pick 91 Njoku poses a huge boom potential candidate as the ninth tight end coming off draft boards. If all goes right he may crack the top six tight ends on the season, which is good enough reason to scoop him up. Having a fast tight end with great size that was selected in the first round is a pretty good option. Especially when he starts to come into his own in his prime as a 28 year old.
8. Isaiah Likely: (Sleeper ADP; 177)
Now this is where value at tight end becomes pretty low, but Likely could carve himself out a role in the Ravens offense. He makes plays that John Harbaugh just can’t ignore. I think he gets more playing time after we’ve yet to see a fully healthy Mark Andrews dominate since Logan Wilson injured him, given he’s only played one game since his injury in the week 10 contest. I genuinely thought the tackle Wilson made on his leg might end Mark Andrews’ reign on top of the tight end pedestal. With the Ravens lack of any real wide receiver depth beyond Zay Flowers it isn’t a bad idea to take Likely as a stash player considering he’s almost the same age as Zay Flowers at only 24 years old. If the Ravens lean on the run game with King Henry in town then two tight end sets might give Likely a shot to show how special he is as an athlete. The catch he had against Jacksonville was nice last season. In double coverage he hauled in what would have been an interception after Lamar escaped the rush and threw up a prayer. It was astonishing. Just look up Likely catch and you’ll see it. He has the size to post up and Lamar is an upper echelon QB so the two definitely could work well together. Don’t forget Julius Thomas’ one year wonder season in Denver when Peyton Manning threw him 12 TDs and he went for nearly 800 yards. You just never know what crazy seasons can come about in an NFL season and Lamar had his best passing season last year. If he throws for 4,000 yards this year then Likely might just be the depth your team needed.
9. Luke Musgrave: (Sleeper ADP; 133)
Now we’re at the bottom of the barrel for tight ends looking for good opportunities in desperation. Jordan Love has no favorites in Green Bay and Musgrave was someone we didn’t get to see a lot of in his rookie campaign as a pass catcher. He did miss 6 games with a bad abdominal injury against the Los Angeles Chargers in the infamous game where QJ dropped a ball that could’ve helped them win the game. Musgrave received a snap share of 75% last season when healthy, which means he can definitely get more attention in the passing game this year alongside a workhorse RB, Josh Jacobs, and Green Bay did invest a second round pick into the unproven tight end. His profile coming out of college was centered around his receiving ability, having a lot of success at Oregon State. Love just got paid and he gives everyone action in the passing game, which means Musgrave could have a shot to put up some serious Dalton Kincaid rookie season or better numbers this year. I don’t mind him as a depth pickup in fantasy because of how terrible the tight end position is in fantasy in terms of dropoff from the top. He’s nothing too special, but he is a sneaky pick.
10. Pat Friermuth: (Sleeper ADP; 126)
Pat Friermuth is a solid tight end who had a decent year in 2022 at the tight end position. He’s nothing flashy, but if he plays all 17 games he might have an alright campaign in 2024. The Steelers have no wideouts outside of George Pickens and I don’t know whether or not Russell Wilson can push the ball down the field now that he is far past his prime. The opportunity is there for Friermuth, but I don’t know if his talent is good enough to justify using one of your last couple picks. I’d take rookie WRs with potential over tight end depth any day of the week in fantasy so if you really don’t care about the tight end position then you can draft some unproven talents at incredibly low spots in the draft.
