Are We Experiencing an Evolution in The Running Back Market?
The market for guaranteed running back contracts fell off a cliff in 2019 with two main case studies teaching GMs that running backs simply weren’t worth a huge contract. The first of which being a deal that Le'veon Bell struck with the New York Jets to become their feature back. Four years and $52 million later the Jets thought they had a versatile chess piece for years to come with him spearheading their backfield. He just had a dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers front office over a contract guarantee in the 5 year $70 million contract they offered him that he felt was disrespectful. In hindsight Bell had no gas left in the tank and wasn’t worth anything, but at the time Bell was a perennial All-Pro running back with vision and patience that saw him putting up numbers as a top tier talent in the NFL. His Jets tenure would be disastrous to put it lightly. After back-to-back 1,300 yard seasons as a Steeler he put up 789 rushing yards in his first season as a Jet averaging a putrid 3.2 yards per carry. This season the whole world could see how slow Le'veon Bell was at this point in his career as a league altering deal became a laughable misstep in large part due to Bell sitting out 2018 in search for greener grass. After 2019 Bell’s career would fall apart at the seams with no success the next two seasons leading him to hang up the cleats for good after being a non factor on four teams in these couple seasons. This same year another running back deal made waves. The extension of Ezekiel Elliott from his rookie contract.
A six year deal worth $90 million ($51 million guaranteed) seemed awfully fair for Elliott considering the resume he had put together as a premier football player. In college Elliott dominated every team his Buckeyes faced running up and down the field with nobody to stop him. He was a force. Shifty, powerful, possessed elite balance, and was as complete of a package one could find at the running back position going 4th overall in the 2016 NFL Draft. The moment Elliott set foot on the field for the Dallas Cowboys lightning had struck. In his rookie season he came 6 yards from scrimmage short of eclipsing 2,000 all purpose yards. This performance got him an immediate nod for being on the All-Pro first team. The next year in just ten contests he would muster an equally impressive 1,300 yards being the catalyst for Dallas’ offensive attack yet again. By the time year three rolled around he was cemented as a top 5 running back in the league and this year he would finally surpass the elusive 2,000 all purpose yard mark that he had been unable to reach in his first two years as a Cowboy. This season made him holdout to receive a contract that would make him the highest paid running back in the league as his play justified a payday. In his first year of the extension it had looked like it had his entire tenure in Dallas. Consistent dominance. After year four however his play would steadily begin to decline.
Each season Elliott’s efficiency, speed, and big play ability would slowly wither away until he was a shell of his former self at the age of 26. It was an odd watch considering how dominant he had been, but the tread on his tires had seemingly caught up to him. Combine that with weight issues and an offensive line that would slowly worsen throughout his time in Dallas and a once no brainer contract became a bad deal quite fast. He was supposed to be a Cowboy for life, but now he is battling competition on the Chargers practice squad. He thought they would make a postseason run, but instead the team got bounced in the first round. This year of paying running backs resulted in a shift on how the league valued running backs. Their value hit an all time low with teams coming up with ways to save money at the position and prolong the primes of their feature backs. Drafting players late, platooning RB’s, and franchise tagging star RB’s to avoid getting ripped off became the new “norm.” That’s where RB’s are currently at today, but will that begin to change as time progresses?
Coming into the 2024 season plenty of key running backs flooded the market at the position. The top names coming in the offseason were Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley both with looming question marks over their shoulders. Could Saquon stay healthy? Did Derrick Henry have any juice left at 31 years old? These guys along with smaller commodities such as D’Andre swift and Tony Pollard all had price tags that might have slipped below their true value. Derrick Henry got 2 years $16 million from the Baltimore Ravens, which has turned out to be the steal of the century for the team as King Henry has put up 1,921 yards averaging 5.9 yards a carry and he might be the key guy to propel the Ravens towards a Super Bowl run. In the opposite conference after receiving a 3 year $37 million deal from the Eagles, Saquon Barkley has had a historic season that would’ve broken the all time rushing record had Nick Sirianni not sat him in their week 18 contest against his former team, The New York Giants. Another notable talent was Josh Jacobs as he single handedly carried Green Bay’s offense all season with Jordan Love playing through injury. His contract of 4 years $48 million was viewed as an overpay this offseason by the casual fan after Jacobs’ efficiency had declined on the Raiders. After a career low of 805 yards the Packers believed in him as a workhorse guy and this year it paid dividends. He finished the year with over 1,600 all purpose yards despite experiencing several obstacles throughout the year with Malik Willis playing QB in multiple contests and limited touches to start of the year. It’s now safe to say Green Bay made a savvy move by acquiring him to lead their backfield especially since he’s only 26 years old. The modern day NFL has shifted back in time in terms of the emphasis on a stout rushing attack, but do NFL GM’s see it that way?
Just look across the board this year at the best offensive attacks in the league and what makes them extra special. Balance. For the Lions Jahmyr Gibbs has made defenders look silly all season with trackstar speed, unmatched acceleration, and unreal contact balance that allows him to slip through tackles and break off an abundance of highlight reel plays seemingly every game. Alongside Gibbs, David Montgomery absorbs hits in the trenches to preserve Jahmyr and his style of brute force continually punishes defenders, wearing down the opposition. You go to Buffalo, Baltimore, and Philadelphia and it’s more of the same. With the Bills and James Cook his high volume and efficiency all season has allowed Josh Allen to play some of the best football of his entire career using his legs and cannon of an arm to compliment Cook’s game that chews up defenses and leaves them with no solution. The Ravens have a one two attack on the ground that may even be more daunting than Buffalo’s as Lamar Jackson has been splicing up defenses all season as even a defensive spy isn’t a solution to stop him from blazing your defense with his legs. Adding King Henry to the equation makes it a nightmare matchup when going against Baltimore because he simply never stops. Every defender in his way is subject to a punishing stiff arm or just gets run over straight up as he still hits top end speeds of over 20 mph at 6 foot 3 inches 247 lbs. A freight train. When you look at Saquon Barkley it’s more of the same, an elite specimen that might be the most athletic running back NFL fans have ever seen. Even with Jalen Hurts’ struggles in the passing game Saquon has put the team on his back. The last example of the value of the running back is Kyren Williams who just has that street fighter mentality on the field. He wasn’t expected to be much when selected by the LA Rams, but he just has been the perfect injury free option for the Rams to go alongside their spectacular receiving core. The commonality between all the serious NFL contenders is a well above average to elite rushing attack.
When teams from the outside looking in on the playoffs take a step back and go through their rosters this offseason lots of names are going to be floated around as potential game changers at the running back position. In the 2025 NFL Draft names like Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and Quinshon Judkins could all be stud running backs at the next level. With a free agent running back class that isn’t so great in 2025 led by Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and JK Dobbins teams are going to begin to realize how valuable it is to lock in star talent at the position. A superstar running back makes an offense way more dangerous than nearly any other position on the field because it gives quarterbacks more freedom to make mistakes, makes your offense unpredictable, allows for offensive lines to miss blocks, and tires out defenses. A consistent rushing attack helps sustain longer drives with more plays that salt away the clock. Teams are beginning to respect running backs and give them another guy in the backfield to lighten their load and preserve their primes. Previous generations just let running backs get chewed up and spit out as they were dealt punishing blows with no breathers all game long. As the game has shifted from air raid passing attacks led by the best QB’s to ever do it with Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady dominating the league to balanced attacks, it’s about time the running back position gets compensated. In the coming years I’m fairly confident that the top running backs are going to start making $20 million a year as the position has been underappreciated for far too long. I understand the sentiment that running backs are easily replaceable for teams because they typically fall further in the draft than other offensive positions and there’s an abundance of prospects who stay under the radar, but an elite talent is an elite talent.
Every team in the playoffs that have any shot of making noise have a top ten running back in the league and with the emergence of a two headed monster model the injury issue might become less of a worry in the coming years. As a guy who loves running backs this year has been a breath of fresh air when watching NFL games. Guys who had modest expectations had career years. Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, JK Dobbins, Chase Brown, and Joe Mixon all took their offenses to new heights. Reaching on running backs may no longer be thought of in the same way after the Detroit Lions made the puzzling decision at the time to draft Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This pick was graded a D- by draft “experts,” but the Lions got a generational talent and the last laugh as he very well is on a trajectory in his career that will end with him getting into the NFL Hall of Fame. They had D’Andre Swift at the time and signed David Montgomery to form their core of running backs. Swift was traded to the Eagles for nothing because Gibbs just had juice that was comparable to the fastest receivers in the league and he had a massive toolbox as a pass catching running back. He looked like a more explosive Alvin Kamara heading into the draft and that is what he has been. After watching Nick Chubb endure the most gruesome injuries I have ever seen as his biggest fan, I think it’s time this position gets compensated for potentially sacrificing their careers at any given moment in the trenches. These guys have the right to be divas, but they rarely exercise the right. I am the white knight that will defend a running backs career any time. Will we finally see an uptick in RB's salaries or will teams look in the fringes to steal talents every 3-4 years and continue the narrative of running backs being expendable?
